The Week Ahead: Will the Fed and Bank of England both raise rates?

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Monday 30 October

  • HSBC Q3 results

Share Centre investment analyst Graham Spooner says: “Rising interest rates should help net interest margins and the general upbeat tone around global and emerging markets should be reflected in its results.”

Tuesday 31 October

  • Flash estimate Euro area inflation for October – Eurostat
  • Preliminary estimate of EU and Euro area GDP, Q3 – Eurostat
  • EU Unemployment, October – Eurostat

Wednesday 1 November

  • US Fed FOMC meeting

If the Fed decides to up rates from the current 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent range it would be the third hike this year.

Spooner says: “If it surprises markets and keeps rates on hold, then theoretically markets should react by buying, or may conclude that the Fed knows something they don’t know, and sell. It will depend on the rationale applied to explain the move.”

Thursday 2 November

  • Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting 

The market expects the Bank of England to raise rates today for the first time since the depths of the recession. Spooner says the inflation report could give some indication on whether the Bank of England elects to increase rates on multiple occasions over the next year or so.

  • US Employment for October – Bureau of Labor Statistics

If the US Fed increases rates the day before, the employment report may be less important than normal, says Spooner. He says data should see a big bounce back after the hurricane season hit the previous figures.

  • World-wide tracking manufacturing – Markit, ISM, Caixin and others

Friday 3 November

  • World-side PMIs tracking non manufacturing – Markit, ISM, Caixin and others