The week ahead: UK retail sales, Wells Fargo results and the Nobel Prize for economics


Fund Strategy looks at some key events shaping the week and what to expect.

Monday 10 October

  • Nobel Prize for economics
  • British Chamber of Commerce Q3 economic survey

The last survey found business and economic confidence softening in the lead up to the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Nine per cent of manufacturers reported improved export and domestic sales in the last quarter, while in the services sector 24 per cent saw an increase in domestic sales and 11 per cent saw improved export sales.

Tuesday 11 October

  • British Retail Consortium sales

The retail sales monitor will address total and like-for-like sales. IHS Markit chief economist for European and the UK Howard Archer says CBI figures suggested consumers took a “breather” in September after strong spending in August. “Sales of clothing, footwear & DIY were reported healthy in September, but there were lower sales for grocers, food and drink specialist shops and for footwear and leather.”

Wednesday 12 October

  • Federal Open Market Committee minutes

The Fed voted to keep rates on hold at its last meeting, but signals from the central bank’s officials were mixed in the lead up to the decision. Markets are now pricing in a December rate hike – will the Fed’s minutes support this view?

Thursday 13 October

  • Profitability of UK companies: Apr to June 2016 – Office for National Statistics

Friday 14 October

  • UK construction output Aug 2016

Howard Archer forecasts construction output will be up 0.5 per cent in August in the latest ONS figures. However, he warns: “While the latest surveys and hard data suggest that the construction sector is improving, there are still major uncertainties for the sector going forward – particularly regarding clients willingness to commit to major projects, especially in the commercial real estate sector.”

  • Wells Fargo Q3 results

The US bank faces a reputational crisis after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hit it with a $185m fine for its employees opening fraudulent accounts to meet sales targets. The fine is already the largest issued by the CFPB and further investigations and lawsuits have already been announced.