The Week Ahead: What to expect from the Budget

calendar

Monday 20 November

  • OECD – quarterly national accounts GDP growth (Q3)

Tuesday 21 November

  • Public Finances, October – ONS

In the financial year to September, public sector net borrowing, excluding public sector (PSNB ex) was 7.2 per cent less than in the same period last year. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) had forecast a 13 per cent rise in PSNB ex for the year as a whole. Borrowing seems to be on course for around £42.3bn in this financial year, £16bn less than the OBR predicted.

“There is one concern, public finances in the first half of the year were boosted by one-offs, such as a boost to self-assessment receipts linked to a change in the dividend tax rate,” says Share Centre investment analyst Graham Spooner. “The second half may see much larger borrowing.”

  • Industrial trends survey – CBI

Wednesday 22 November

  • UK budget – Chancellor of the Exchequer

“The UK’s economic performance so far this calendar year has been much weaker than the OBR, or indeed the IMF, predicted, and as result the chancellor has less leeway than he may well have been expecting a few months ago,” says Spooner.

“Furthermore, the OBR is expected to revise down its forecasts for UK productivity, and thus potential growth. This means that the chancellor may well conclude that he has less scope for stimulus than he would like.”

  •  FOMC minutes October 31 – November 1 – US Fed

Thursday 23 November

  • UK GDP Q3 2017, second estimate – ONS
  • Thanksgiving (US) – NYSE closed

Friday 24 November

  • Black Friday (US)

Post-Thanksgiving shopping frenzy marks beginning of Christmas season. Term generally thought to refer to bringing retailers back into the ‘black’.