The Week Ahead: Clinton vs Trump – who will take out the US election?


The US election takes centre stage this week. Depending how the country votes results the UK will probably know who has won by the time they wake up on Wednesday morning. For those with election fatigue, we also have a roundup of economic indicators and 

Monday 7 November

  • Halifax House Prices

IHS Markit expects the Halifax to report on Friday that house prices were flat month-on-month in October after edging up 0.1 per cent in September.

  • HSBC Q3 results

Share Centre analyst Graham Spooner says: “Interim results in August surprised the market with news of a share buyback for the second half of the year, along with confirming its aim to maintain the dividend this year.

“Investors will be hoping that the restructuring announced last year is impacting in a positive way. They will also be interested in the banks outlook for the Asia region and hoping for no more regulatory issues.”

Tuesday 8 November

  • Clinton vs Trump – Election for the 45th president of the United States

The US goes to the polls on Tuesday, but the earliest that the UK is likely to know the result will be 11pm in the evening, depending on how each candidate performs in key states. A result will almost certainly be known by the time most people in the UK wake up on Wednesday.

Markets have been nervous as election day nears, with the S&P 500 seeing its longest losing streak in five-years as Republican candidate Donald Trump narrows in on Hillary Clinton in the polls.

However, Libby Cantrill head of public policy at Pimco says headlines have been focussed on the popular vote, but it is state polling that is much more important to keep an eye on.

Between 10 and 12 of these battleground states are important, but arguably only a subset are truly critical to get to the needed 270 electoral votes to win the White House: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

“That is because Donald Trump would have to win all four if Clinton maintains her relatively healthy leads in the battleground states of Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin.”

Pennsylvania and Florida are the key states to keep an eye on, Cantrill says. If Clinton loses Pennsylvania there are fewer paths for her to reach the White House and it would be near impossible for Trump to win if he does not take out Florida.

  • British Retail Consortium Retail Sales Monitor for October

IHS Markit’s chief economist for Europe and UK Howard Archer says he expects decent retail sales growth in October, helped by the ending of the warm weather, boosting demand for autumn/winter clothing and fashions.

“In the near-term, there is the possibility that some consumers will bring forward purchases of big-ticket items in the belief that their prices are likely to rise appreciably over the coming months.”

  • Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output – ONS
  • Marks & Spencer

Spooner says investors will be keeping an eye on how general merchandise performs, particularly womenswear.

“Any news on progress with expanding the convenience store side of the food business will also be of interest as will any update on full year guidance.”

Wednesday 9 November

  • UK trade deficit

Archer reckons total trade deficit (out on Wednesday) is expected to have narrowed to £3.5 billion in September after jumping back out to £4.7 billion in August from £2.2 billion in July.

A major hope for the UK economy going forward is that the substantial overall weakening of the pound since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June’s referendum will increasingly feed through to boost foreign demand for UK goods and services.

“At the same time, likely softening demand in the UK is likely to increasingly weigh down on import volumes.”

Thursday 10 November

  • ITV Q3 results

Spooner says reports on job cuts have spooked the markets and its share prices have dropped as a result.

Investors will be keen to hear of any Brexit effect on advertising rates. Of more importance will be the performance of its studios business, which has been expanding at a fast rate and its recent acquisitions.”

  • AstraZeneca

Spooner says: “It will be interesting to see if management comment on the US election result which we would have had by the time Astra reports.

“The pharmaceutical stocks will suffer if Clinton wins a follows with her rhetoric on drugs price controls.”

Friday 11 November

  • Construction Output – ONS

IHS Markit predicts construction output to be flat in the September figures.

Archer says: “While the latest surveys suggest that the construction sector may have returned to growth, there are still major uncertainties for the sector going forward – particularly regarding clients willingness to commit to major projects, especially in the commercial real estate sector.”