The Week Ahead: Carney in Parliament, ECB meeting, Sturgeon programme

calendar

This week will be full of political and economic debates starting with Mark Carney discussing policy before MPs, followed by the ECB meeting on rates and Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon on a possible second independence vote.

Fund Strategy looks at some key events shaping the week and what to expect.

Monday 5 September

  • Members of the House of Commons in the UK debate a petition calling for a second referendum on EU membership.
  • UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index

Services are the most significant part of the UK economy and slumped sharply following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. This week’s PMI’s are expected to rise from the post-Brexit shock.

Chief UK & European economist for IHS Markit Howard Archer predicts the PMI will move to 50.7. 

Consumer services activity is likely to have benefited from signs that consumers are currently still willing to spend amid still decent fundamentals,” Archer says.

Tuesday 6 September

  • OECD Consumer Price Indices
  • Scottish Parliament – Programme for Government statement

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will deliver her Programme for Government statement where she is expected to reveal details of her plan for a second Scottish independence referendum in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

  • US services data by the Institute for Supply Management
  • US Markit services PMI for August

Wednesday 7 September

  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testifies in the parliament on monetary policy with deputy governor Jon Cunliffe and officials Kristin Forbes and Ian McCafferty.
  • Sports Direct AGM

The Investors Forum, a group of asset managers with combined assets of £14.5trn, has hit out at the retailer’s poor corporate governance and says it will be voting against several board appointments.

  • UK Index of Production

Thursday 8 September

  • The ECB’s Governing Council meets to review interest rates and stimulus programs.

IHS Markit chief European and UK economist Howard Archer believes the ECB will hold fire and won’t make any further changes to its monetary policy.

He says: “The ECB indicated at its July meeting that it is  prepared to take more stimulative action, but it wanted more information as to how the Eurozone economy is faring after downside risks to the growth and inflation outlook were magnified by the UK’s Brexit vote.”

Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter from 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter although economic activity doesn’t seem to have been influenced by the UK vote to leave the Union, Archer notes.

Friday 9 September

  • Euro-area finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Bratislava
  • UK Overseas Trade and Statistics