The Week Ahead: Brexit negotiations begin, CBI industrial figures


This week the Bank of England will publish some statistics on capital issuance. Meanwhile, hospitality firm Whitbread will publish its first quarter results..

Fund Strategy looks at some key events shaping the week and what to expect.

Monday 19 June

  • Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU begin

Negotiations will begin at 11am with an opening session between the European Commission’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and UK secretary of state for exiting the Europea Union David Davis.

Last week, Barnier urged the UK to appoint a negotiating team to get on with Brexit talks, stating “I can’t negotiate with myself.”

The shock result of the UK election, which saw swings to Labour deliver a hung parliament, meant there had been some concern that the UK would have to delay negotiations.

The bulk of investors believe Theresa May’s bruising at the ballot box could soften Brexit, although others question whether her aggressive rhetoric against the EU in the lead up to vote was just politics.

There will also be a meeting of coordinators: Sabine Weyand, the European Commission’s deputy chief negotiator and Olly Robbins, permanent secretary, UK department for exiting the EU)

Tuesday 20 June

  • Capital Issuance – Bank of England – Statistics

Wednesday 21 June

  • Whitbread (Q1 results)

The Share Centre investment research analyst Graham Spooner says: “The owner of the Premier Inns and Costa coffee chains warned in April that it expected a tougher consumer environment in the current year so the market will be looking out for any signs of that in the first quarter update. Costa will be a particular focus given recent signs of sales weakness but the market will also be checking the revenue per room figures for the Premier Inn.

“Any comments on full year guidance will be of interest. Margins are being squeezed by a range of factors and concerns about UK consumers’ disposable incomes being impacted by rising inflation are also hindering the shares at present.”

  • Public sector finances, May – Office for National Statistics

Thursday 22 June

  • Industrial Trends survey – Confederation of British Industry

Spooner says: “UK manufacturing has put in a disappointing performance of late, seeing contraction in January, February and March of this year, although it did see expansion in April.

“Meanwhile, last month’s industrial trends survey from the CBI rose to its highest level since February 2015 – with a reading of +9.  With the purchasing managers index for April only just short of a three-year high, will the CBI survey point to further improvement in May?”