The week ahead: Will the Bank of England cut rates?


The big event this week is the first Bank of England rates decision since the UK voted to leave EU referendum.

Fund Strategy looks at some key events shaping the week and what to expect.

Monday 11 July

  • Eurogroup Finance Ministers – meeting

Ministers will be briefed on the developments in financial markets since Brexit.

  • OECD Composite Leading Indicators
  • Alcoa earnings

The US aluminium giant Alcoa kicks off the Q2 earnings season. Big banks JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup follow later in the week.

Tuesday 12 July

  • Marks & Spencer AGM

The retailer holds its AGM following disappointing quarterly results released last week with like-for-like sales in Q1 falling 8.9 per cent.

  • Monthly Oil Markets

OPEC report on developments in the world economy, data on oil prices, supply and demand, and crude and product stocks.

Wednesday 13 July

  • Barratt, Burberry and JD Wetherspoons earnings

“The roof’s caved in on Barratt since the EU referendum,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould of the UK property developer, which saw its share price drop 28 per cent in the week following Brexit. Mould suggests the market is distrusting about the existing dividend yielding over 7 per cent.

At luxury retailer Burberry, Mould says people are starting to wonder whether creative director Christopher Bailey took on too much when he took over the chief executive job in 2014, after Angela Ahrendts left for Apple. Weak sterling could benefit the brand, which is popular in parts of Asia and other international markets.

Mould warns that shares in JD Wetherspoon have been volatile recently and the pub chain is due to be hit by the living wage, introduced in April. He says it is a relatively recession-proof business if the UK economy heads in that direction following the Brexit vote.

Thursday 14 July

  • UK Monetary Policy Committee Meeting – interest rate decision and minutes

On Friday markets suggested a 78 per cent chance of a rate cut on Thursday. The day after the UK voted to leave the EU referendum governor Mark Carney said the bank “will not hesitate to take additional measures as required” as markets adjusted to Brexit.

Friday 15 July

  • China – GDP and economic data press conference