Threadneedle’s outlook more pessimistic than OECD’s

GDP growth worldwide will be more subdued than the OECD’s latest predictions, says Threadneedle.

Mark Burgess
Mark Burgess

Mark Burgess, the chief investment officer at Threadneedle, estimates real global GDP growth will be close to 2.5% in 2012.

In its latest report on the general macroeconomic situation, the OECD’s prediction was for 3.5% world real GDP growth next year.

Burgess is similarly bearish on the prospects for eurozone and US GDP growth in 2012. He says: “We have penciled in zero growth in the eurozone and the UK for 2012, and 1.5% for the US.”

Real GDP growth of 0.2% for the eurozone and 2% for the US are the current OECD estimates.

“Looking to 2012 the prospects remain extremely uncertain and this does not feel like an environment in which to take significant risks,” says Burgess.

Burgess argues in favour of high yield and emerging market bonds, emerging companies, secular themed companies and the UK commercial property sector, in the current investment environment.

“The excess yield offered by UK commercial property over gilts is at historically wide levels and, although some areas of the property market are likely to suffer headwinds in 2012, the yield should be well underpinned,” he says.

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