The pound has fallen against both the US dollar and the euro as the latest poll on Scottish independence shows support for a yes vote has surged to 47 per cent.
A poll released this morning by YouGov showed that when discounting undecided votes, the number of Scottish ‘yes’ voters had risen by eight points since the start of August to 47 per cent versus 53 per cent who plan to vote ‘no’.
YouGov president Peter Kellner said the surge in votes in favour of independence put the yes campaign “within touching distance of victory”, adding that the final result could become “too close to call” if support for independence among Labour voters continues to rise.
The poll triggered a fall in the pound in excess of 0.5 per cent against the US dollar during late morning trading to $1.6505 while the euro rose by approximately 0.4 per cent to reach 79.54p.
Société Générale currency analyst Kit Juckes has also warned that a yes vote could trigger a further fall in sterling. He says: “”A Scottish yes to independence poses far more questions (about the currency, the debt, the oil, the future) than it answers but my best guess is that a yes would trigger a 3-5% fall by sterling as an initial reaction.”
A previous study by economists at Morgan Stanley has also warned that the value of the pound could fall by as much as 10 per cent if Scotland becomes independent.