Economists call for dismantling of eurozone

In their submission to the Wolfson Economics Prize 2012, which focused on ways of dismantling the eurozone, a team from the macroeconomic forecasting consultancy predicts that Greece will leave the currency union at some point after this year.

The report, which was authored by Charles Dumas, chairman, and directors Jamie Dannhauser, Dario Perkins and Mike Taylor, also sees the bloc’s remaining 16 members face “dire financial pressures” and says they will continue to suffer while floating-currency non-members Sweden and Switzerland enjoy economic success.

The authors argue that the euro was “inherently flawed” from its beginnings, highlighting the discrepancies in competitiveness which have grown over the bloc’s 13-year existence and saying universal short-term interest rates have held back growth in Germany while encouraging excessive personal debt growth in Spain.

“To secure the best future growth and prosperity of its members, the eurozone should be disbanded in favour of reconstituted national currencies floating separately,” according to the economists. (article continues below)

“It would, of course, be open to countries wishing to continue to operate a common currency to do so, but we conclude that such a policy would be sub-optimal.”

The winner of the Wolfson Economics Prize, which is sponsored by the Charles Wolfson Charitable Trust and managed by think tank Policy Exchange, will be announced on May 29.

Its five finalists are Roger Bootle and his team from Capital Economics, private investor Cathy Dobbs, Nomura Securities’ Jens Nordvig and Nick Firoozye, Record Currency Management’s Neil Record and Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception.

Lombard Street Research’s submission was highlighted as being “of interest”, alongside entries from Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics, the London School of Economics’ Julian Le Grand and investment banker Michael Redican.