Emerging economies slow

A key question facing the global economy is the likely trajectory of the developing world. The quicker the emerging economies continue to grow the more resilient the world economy is likely to be overall.
Against this backdrop the growth figures for China, the largest developing economy, are particularly important. Today the National Bureau of Statistics of China published a release showing that the Chinese economy is still growing fast but its rate of growth is declining. GDP increased at 9.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, the slowest in five years. In the first three quarters GDP rose by 9.9% year-on-year, 2.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2007.
Capital Economics, a consultancy, wrote that the decline is more than would be expected even when the post-Olympics slowdown is taken into account: Latest output data suggest that weakness was more widespread. Industrial production growth, which had slumped in August, fell further in September even though the Olympics-related restrictions on output were lifted midway through the month (Asian Economics Output, October 20, 2008).
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund is forecasting strong growth in the Middle East and Central Asia in its Regional Economic Outlook. It forecasts growth of 6.5% in 2008 and about 6% in 2009.